If you want to spot trends before they happen, it is important to identify when a change of form is due to tactical changes or the execution of the tactic. In most cases, the underlying issue is the execution, not the tactic.

When a team’s form changes, for the better or worse, most people’s first reaction is to say that the manager’s tactics changed. That isn’t always the case.

In most cases, the majority of the instructions the players receive go unchanged. There might be some minor tweaks to the tactics, but now instead, they’re executing each individual action better or worse. That is the reason for the change in form.

Results-based analysis is a trap. If you can identify the difference between the two things—tactics and execution—then you will be able to spot when the results aren’t reflecting the effectiveness of the underlying strategy.

Manchester United are a new team, a team transformed. They are sharper in every phase of play, they are finishing clear-cut chances, and the chemistry between individual sets of players is improving with each match. They are committing to challenges more confidently, and they are communicating the swapping of responsibilities and positions of players out of possession better. There have been some minor tweaks, notably Bryan Mbeumo tracking back more often and more aggressively in transition to defense, but Ruben Amorim hasn’t changed their strategy. They are executing the tactics better than they were, and now they are winning matches.

You can have the best strategy, the perfect plan on paper, but if the players aren’t executing, it doesn’t matter what tactics are used.

I would recommend videos from Footy with an Edge and Statman Dave, two sane voices who kept me sane to start the season as I marveled at Manchester United’s attack. They can see what I’m seeing.

Other times, the tactic doesn’t fit the player’s profiles, therefore it will never work. It is a dead end. You will have an edge over the masses if you can spot a dip when everyone else is seeing a dead end. You have to change if you have entered a dead end, but if it’s a dip, you have to continue doing what you know will work.

Featured image credit to Seth Godin’s life-changing book, The Dip, an essential read for anyone stuck wondering if they should quit. This felt like a football example for that book.