The thing that makes Pep Guardiola’s teams exciting now is not control, it’s the unpredictability. You should never know how they are going to lineup or what shapes they’ll transform into, but when there are injuries, they loose that surprise factor.

Each change is tested prior. For example, Josko Gvardiol was trialed in midfield several times, inverting into midfield for five minutes in one game, twenty minutes another game, in different game-states against different levels opponents. Lower table, middle of the table, in a big game. They are always performing these small tests that they piece together.

When Manchester City face Real Madrid in the Champions League, you see the line-up and notice they are starting five defenders. Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias, Nathan Ake, Josko Gvardiol, and John Stones. No Rodri or Kovacic, no regular holding midfielders in the line-up. You’d expect at least one of those defenders to play in midfield because Manchester City is not the type of team to play with a back five in possession. Manuel Akanji and John Stones have both played alongside Rodri in the midfield, and both have been trialed without Rodri together as a pivot as holding midfielders. In Manchester City’s last match against Real Madrid, Akanji played alongside Rodri in midfield, and in the game prior, Stones played alongside Rodri in midfield.

Knowing that you’d assume Manchester City will start with a back-four made up of Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias, Nathan Ake, and Josko Gvardiol. Because John Stones has the most experience playing in midfield, he would be the lone holding midfielder, with Bernardo Silva dropping back to help him if Real Madrid pressures them high. If Real Madrid are not as active in the press and allow Manchester City time on the ball, Manuel Akanji will then invert into the midfield alongside John Stones. That is what you’d expect.

But this is the unpredictability factor that Pep brings. He does that, but he adds an extra element that Real Madrid would not plan for. He has Josko Gvardiol invert into the midfield alongside John Stones, which allows Manuel Akanji to stay back, focused on defending against Vinicius Junior. Bernardo Silva moves around to cover for Gvardiol when he inverts. Gvardiol inverting forces Real Madrid to defend more narrowly, opening up the wings to pass out from the back. Then, when they have enough time on the ball and control, Manuel Akanji steps into the midfield alongside John Stones and Josko Gvardiol.

Now, do I think it is a great idea to use a 2-3 substructure against a front three made up of Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe, and Rodrygo when all you have is Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake back to defend the counter? No, but luckily for them, Rodrygo wasn’t as active down the right wing when Real Madrid countered.

Pep is known for always being in control of positioning. You can’t move here; you have to pass there. When you get the ball, you do this instead of this. If he is in control of their movements, what happens when he doesn’t have the players? He loses options.

When it’s working, it works, but it works because he changes things up all the time. The opponent never knows what they will be facing. When a player goes down injured, you look to the bench. If the entire team is tired, he has to make sacrifices. They start making sacrifices, they stop experimenting, they don’t have the ability to do those little tests, like the one they did with Gvardiol, and then they lose that unpredictability.

Without unpredictability, they and any other team are boring. They become efficient, even when they are winning. Some teams give the players control, but Pep’s team is choreographed. From the outside looking in, it seems like if he doesn’t okay the idea, it doesn’t happen. But once he okays the idea, they are free to work within its constraints.

The unpredictability allows them to gain control, not the other way around. They’ve been losing control and have become more boring to watch this season because they have lacked options.