In my opinion, you need to visually see an aerial duel to determine who won, as there is more nuance involved in assessing who is to blame for not winning possession. We should consider whether that stat represents the information we are looking for.

Here are the definitions provided by both Opta and Wyscout for aerial duels won or lost. Opta provides statistical data for FBref, FotMob, Sofascore, and most betting services. 

Opta:

This is where two players challenge in the air against each other. The player that wins the ball is deemed to have won the duel. When more than two players are involved the player closest to the duel winner is given an Aerial Duel lost.

By “wins the ball,” does that mean “wins possession?” Because if you don’t win possession, generally, who cares?

Wyscout:

An aerial duel is considered won in favor of the player who touches the ball first, no matter what happens next. An aerial duel that results in a foul is considered won in favor of the player who suffered a foul.

This definition is still not what I am looking for, but at least it is more clear. Why should I care if the player “touches the ball first, no matter what happens?”

For example, say I put Peter Crouch on a team filled with small children and he had to face play with his back to goal to attempt to head the ball down to his teammates, but the defense on the other team was made up of full-grown adults. Crouch is going to touch the ball first every time, but his team of small children will never be able to maintain possession.

Touching the ball first is only half the battle. Maybe I’m misunderstanding something, but how can one bring up an aerial duel stat total over a given period and then say that it can represent the quality of Peter Crouch’s ability to win aerial duels without factoring in other data like if or for how long possession was maintained after that touch?

       

       

       

       

This is an example from a match last season between Arsenal and Liverpool.

This would be counted as an aerial duel won for Kai Havertz because he controlled the ball with his knee first, but because Alexis Mac Allister bodied Martin Ødegaard, Arsenal lost possession immediately, and Liverpool are on the attack. Havertz did well to bring it down, but he hypothetically could have controlled it differently to give Ødegaard a better chance at maintaining possession. But when someone goes and looks at the stats for the game, they’ll see he won one of one aerial duel; they’ll believe he had a good game.

Maybe Kai Havertz tries to head it high if Martin Ødegaard was taller, or he would head it clear into space if he was faster. Peter Crouch is going to work extra hard to head the ball down into an area where a smaller child could maintain possession. The technique will be different based on who you are playing with; therefore, the amount of aerial duels won will be influenced heavily by who that player is playing with.

We should take the aerial duel won stat for what it is and, in my opinion, put more weight into the team aspect of maintaining possession. And not only that, but then measure for how long the team maintains possession after the duel. Player A controls the ball for Player B to receive the ball. The way in which Player A controls the ball, the technique, would be different if Martin Ødegaard is taller, quicker, or stronger. 

That is the nuance I’m talking about. 

This isn’t tennis. The decision the player makes is based on their teammates, and that stat in particular always needs some form of context.