England has yet to encounter an opponent of the caliber of Spain in Euro 2024. Spain has been on a tier to themselves. If England get pinned back in their own end, which they should, I don’t think they have the pace to counter Spain.

England may try to press high. Their counter-press was sort of half-hearted against Switzerland and the Netherlands, but I don’t think it will work against Spain. Spain has too much technical quality; they should play through it.

So say England are forced to defend deep as Spain’s wingers Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams come crashing in. Bukayo Saka will be out wide on the right to assist Kyle Walker, marking Nico Williams either one-on-one or two-on-one. The hope will be to limit Spain to shots from outside the box, but no shot is a safe shot against Spain.

If England get the ball, they will need to slowly progress the ball forward, working their way to the halfway line. They’ll need to move slowly because they’ll need players ahead of the ball. I can’t see a scenario, outside of a massive error by Spain, in which Harry Kane, Phil Foden, and Jude Bellingham outrun Rodri, Dani Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, or Cucurella on the counter as they collapse on each pass.

Spain are effective at pressing high off the ball, but if England get past that press, Spain have a habit of intentionally leaving space wide.

The problem for England is the way their first eleven are setup to attack. Dani Carvajal will push in from the right to mark Jude Bellingham, and Marc Cucurella will push in from the left to mark Phil Foden. Bukayo Saka will be high on the right, an outlet behind Cucurella, and Nico Williams will track back to mark him.

Kieran Trippier is an issue. I argued they didn’t need a left-back in the group stage against lesser opponents, but unfortunately they will need one against Spain to defend against Lamine Yamal. If Trippier does not get forward high up the wing to pin Lamine Yamal back, Spain should be able to easily suffocate England centrally, pushing them back. Yamal will be able to help put pressure on Declan Rice and Marc Guéhi, with the midfielders, as they press England’s back-line.

Spain showed France that they are flexible out of possession. They normally pack the center of the pitch but, like England, France progresses through the wings. Everything is sideways.

The difference between France and England is that France had speed on the wings and in the center-forward position with Theo Hernandez, Kylian Mbappe, Kolo Muani, and Ousmane Dembele. Except for Bukayo Saka, England do not have pace on the wings, which is fine as long as you can effectively progress through the center of the pitch, but Declan Rice frequently ignores open passes to the feet of Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham.

If England avoids passing through the center all together, then Spain should be able to spread out and/or push resources inside and back towards England’s backline.

If England can come out of the first half with the game tied or if they can grab the lead, they have succeeded. If they go down a goal, the difference will need to come from the bench, as it often has for England in this tournament. That is a bit harder to predict because it is dependent on who Spain brings on off the bench. I know England will likely throw on Cole Palmer, Connor Gallagher, Luke Shaw, Ivan Toney, Ollie Watkins, or Trent Alexander-Arnold at halftime or past the 70th minute.

I think England will get pinned back, and Spain will pick away at them slowly. I’m picturing a one-sided game in favor of Spain, but it could be more open. In a knock-out match, anything can happen.

Match: England vs. Spain pre-match, 14 July 2024