In this week’s Tactics Journal recap:

• Elliot Anderson takes 302 possession wins into England’s World Cup, but possession-adjusted rates pull Rodri and Curtis Jones level
• Heat and altitude change how World Cup matches are played, and who they favor
• FIFA is engineering 2026 World Cup grass to keep ball roll and bounce the same across all 16 stadiums
• Design two energy-matched sessions to separate intensity from total load
• What a young player’s first big shot can and cannot tell a scout
• Bernardo Silva’s center-back role and the limits of a positional experiment
• World Cup will use a new five-second restart rule for throw-ins and goal kicks
• Tactics Journal Tactics Board. Think it. Draw it. Share it.
• The World Cup of the press
• Never assume people know what you know

Elliot Anderson takes 302 possession wins into England’s World Cup, but possession-adjusted rates pull Rodri and Curtis Jones level

The Recap: Elliot Anderson goes to the World Cup with 302 possession wins, and nobody else in Europe’s top five leagues reached 200. Forest had 46.7% of the ball, so the total is no artifact. Only Rodri and Curtis Jones get close on adjusted rates.

The details:

• Elliot Anderson’s 302 Opta possession wins led Europe’s top five leagues by 107.
• Forest’s 46.7% possession share means the total is not a low-possession artifact.
• A possession-adjusted table puts Rodri and Curtis Jones level with Anderson on rate while he leads on volume and minutes.

Why it matters: The useful question is what this changes for coaching, scouting, or decision-making once the pattern shows up in real football environments. Read the full report →

Heat and altitude change how World Cup matches are played, and who they favor

The Recap: Heat does not tire World Cup teams equally. Players ran about 5% fewer sprints in the hottest 2014 matches and passed more, favouring possession sides over pressing teams. Most 2026 venues are forecast above the heat line players call unsafe.

The details:

• At the 2014 World Cup, high heat cut the number of sprints by roughly 5% and players completed more passes to hold the ball.
• A BMJ study of 1,460 South American matches found each 1,000 m of altitude difference shifts the expected goal margin by about half a goal.
• FIFPRO treats 28°C WBGT as unsafe, and 14 of the 16 venues at the 2026 World Cup are projected to cross it.

Why it matters: The useful question is what this changes for coaching, scouting, or decision-making once the pattern shows up in real football environments. Read the full report →

FIFA is engineering 2026 World Cup grass to keep ball roll and bounce the same across all 16 stadiums

The Recap: The 2025 Club World Cup pitch failures came from temporary sod laid days before kickoff, not the grass. FIFA’s 2026 program engineers ball roll, bounce and grip to match across 16 venues, and teams should still scout how each surface plays on the day.

The details:

• Club World Cup players and coaches called the temporary US pitches dry and slow, with sod laid days before kickoff and watered by hand.
• FIFA funded Michigan State and Tennessee turf scientists to build two grass families so ball bounce, roll and grip behave similarly across 16 venues.
• Vancouver’s BC Place shows the engineered version, a hybrid grass run by root-zone sensors, irrigation, vacuum ventilation, grow lights and fans.

Why it matters: The useful question is what this changes for coaching, scouting, or decision-making once the pattern shows up in real football environments. Read the full report →

Design two energy-matched sessions to separate intensity from total load

The Recap: Pairing two football sessions with the same energy cost but different intensity lets staff see on the pitch the training effect a single GPS total conceals, with load monitoring as the readout rather than the point.

The details:

• Lead on designing a matched-energy session pair, repeated high-speed efforts versus longer moderate running, and what coaches compare in players afterward.
• Use the football GPS volume-versus-intensity split and the soccer energy-cost study to ground the design in on-pitch metrics.
• Keep the treadmill matched-run findings and measurement-error material as supporting evidence and caveats, not the spine.

Why it matters: The useful question is what this changes for coaching, scouting, or decision-making once the pattern shows up in real football environments. Read the full report →

What a young player’s first big shot can and cannot tell a scout

The Recap: Before Luiz Henrique played for Brazil, a youth coach signed him on one left-footed shot at six. Kicking-speed data and prospective studies show why scouts should treat one big strike as a reason to keep watching, not proof of a future professional.

The details:

• Luiz Henrique, now a Brazil international and Botafogo idol, was signed to a Petrópolis youth academy at six on the strength of one left-footed shot.
• A young player’s hardest shot partly measures who matured first: first-team under-15s out-struck reserves by about 10 km/h, a gap that closed by under-19.
• Prospective studies of thousands of academy players explain only 15 to 20 percent of later selection, and barely 13 percent reach the elite level.

Why it matters: The useful question is what this changes for coaching, scouting, or decision-making once the pattern shows up in real football environments. Read the full report →

Bernardo Silva’s center-back role and the limits of a positional experiment

The Recap: Bernardo Silva said he first trained as a centre-back before Guardiola used him at left-back against Arsenal. The match connected the experiment to Arsenal’s right side, City’s cover behind the ball, and the running demands of the role.

The details:

• Lead with Bernardo Silva saying he first trained as a centre-back before Guardiola softened the Arsenal plan and used him at left-back.
• Use Arsenal 1-3 Manchester City to show how the left-back version worked in the first half before the half-time change.
• Connect the match example to training design, defensive cover, and the different running demands of a new role.

Why it matters: The useful question is what this changes for coaching, scouting, or decision-making once the pattern shows up in real football environments. Read the full report →

World Cup will use a new five-second restart rule for throw-ins and goal kicks

The Recap: A visible five-second count for delayed throw-ins and goal kicks will be used at the World Cup; at zero, opponents get the throw-in or a corner.

The details:

• The count starts only after the referee judges deliberate delay, not automatically when the ball goes out.
• Throw-in studies show why slow restarts invite pressure: faster throws and nearby passing options are linked with better retention.
• Goal kicks carry the bigger penalty because a delayed restart gives the opponent a corner.

Why it matters: The useful question is what this changes for coaching, scouting, or decision-making once the pattern shows up in real football environments. Read the full report →

Tactics Journal Tactics Board. Think it. Draw it. Share it.

The Recap: I’ve been asked over the years what apps I use to make my tactics board graphics. I am proud to share with you a web app I made so you can make the same graphics for free. Try it right now. Read the full post →

The World Cup of the press

The Recap: This is the World Cup of the press. It will be defined by who chases the opponent’s heels best. Teams from the Americas, Africa, and Asia are best prepared to exploit opponents forced forward in the heat. Read the full post →

Never assume people know what you know

The Recap: Since I began writing about football during the 2022 World Cup, the way I watch matches has slowly changed. I moved away from spotting weaknesses and toward tracking small, repetitive structural patterns. I’m going back to the old way. Read the full post →

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